NBIS Stock Analysis 2026: 9% Earnings Surge — Price Target & Buy or Sell?

As of February 15, 2026, NBIS stock is trading at $98.01, up 9.23% from its pre-earnings close .

If you caught the initial headlines—”Nebius Misses Revenue Estimates, Stock Drops”—you might have assumed the worst. But the market has a funny way of punishing short-term noise while rewarding long-term signals.

The question isn’t whether Nebius delivered a perfect quarter—it didn’t. The question is whether the underlying thesis remains intact.

The bounce tells us something important: institutional money is looking past the quarterly miss and betting on the 2026–2027 trajectory.

Executive Summary

• Q4 revenue miss, but ARR exceeded guidance and demand metrics signal sold-out capacity through Q1 2026
• $7–9B ARR guidance implies triple-digit growth into 2026, with core AI cloud revenue up 830% YoY
• 60% of $16–20B CapEx already funded via cash on hand, customer prepayments, and planned debt facilities
• Risk-reward favors accumulation on weakness, though execution and funding risks remain real

I’ve been covering AI infrastructure stocks since before the current boom cycle. I’ve seen this pattern before with high-growth names. The evidence suggests the thesis remains intact. But the risks are real, and the valuation math matters.

Let’s break down exactly what’s happening with NBIS stock, where it’s headed, and whether you should buy, sell, or sit this one out.

Why Now? The February 15, 2026 Setup

Timeliness matters in markets. Here’s where we stand today:

• Year-to-date performance: NBIS is down roughly 8% YTD, but up 125% over the past 12 months
• Nasdaq comparison: The Nasdaq Composite is up roughly 4% YTD, meaning NBIS has underperformed the broader tech index in 2026—so far
• Macro context: AI infrastructure spending remains one of the few areas of tech where capital expenditure is accelerating rather than slowing
• Post-earnings action: After dropping to $85.29 in pre-market following the Q4 report, NBIS bounced to a high of $100.32 on February 13
• After-hours signal: The stock ticked down slightly after hours, suggesting consolidation, not panic
• Liquidity context: Average daily dollar volume now exceeds $1.8 billion, providing sufficient liquidity for institutional participation

For readers looking at the broader market backdrop, our breakdown of why are stocks down today provides context on current volatility trends.

Upcoming Catalysts to Watch

• Q1 earnings update (late April 2026) – First look at 2026 revenue pacing
• Data center commissioning milestones – Progress on nine announced facilities
• Microsoft contract revenue confirmation – Visibility into 2027 contribution
• Debt facility announcements – Any signaling on funding costs and structure

What Is Happening With NBIS Stock in 2026?

The short answer: the market is pricing a multi-billion dollar AI infrastructure bet, and opinions are divided on whether execution will keep pace with ambition.

When Nebius reported Q4 2025 earnings on February 12, 2026, the headline numbers looked messy:

• Revenue: $227.7 million (vs. $246.1 million estimated)
• Adjusted EBITDA: $15.0 million (vs. $22.6 million estimated)
• Net loss: $249.6 million

On the surface, a miss is a miss. The stock dropped 3–5% in after-hours trading.

But here’s where context matters.

Annualized run-rate revenue hit $1.2 billion, exceeding the company’s own guidance of $1.1 billion . Core AI cloud revenue grew 830% year-over-year . Operating cash flow came in at $834 million—nearly four times reported revenue—driven by upfront customer prepayments for future capacity .

And here’s the kicker: capacity is sold out through Q1 2026, and pricing remains strong across all GPU generations .

This profile reflects demand outpacing reported revenue timing—a good problem to have, provided execution holds.

What Does NBIS Actually Do?

Nebius is an AI-centric cloud platform. Unlike AWS or Azure, which serve general-purpose computing needs, Nebius is purpose-built for the specific demands of AI training and inference.

The business model is straightforward:

• Build data centers (vertically integrated, controlling design, cooling, power)
• Fill them with NVIDIA GPUs (hundreds of thousands of them)
• Rent that computing power to AI startups, enterprises, and hyperscalers

Key customers include Microsoft and Meta, both of which have multi-billion dollar agreements with Nebius . The Microsoft contract is scaling through 2026, with full revenue contribution expected in 2027 . The Meta contract is now fully deployed and generating revenue .

Nebius also owns strategic stakes in high-value assets, including a 28% stake in ClickHouse, a data analytics platform recently valued at $15 billion in a private funding round .

The company is headquartered in Amsterdam, listed on Nasdaq, and operates data centers across the United States and Europe, including a massive new 240MW facility in France .

For a broader look at the AI infrastructure landscape, see our deep dive on software stocks 2026: AI winners and losers.

Is NBIS a Russian Company?

No. This is a common point of confusion worth clarifying.

Nebius Group N.V. was formerly part of Yandex, often described as “the Google of Russia.” Following extensive corporate restructuring and geopolitical developments, Nebius is now fully independent, Amsterdam-based, and Nasdaq-listed .

The management team is international. The customers are Western hyperscalers. The data centers are in the U.S. and EU. For investors scanning NBIS stock news, any references to “Russian exposure” reflect the company’s history, not its current operations.

Ownership Structure: Who Holds NBIS?

Institutional context matters for credibility. Here’s the current ownership picture:

• Institutional ownership: Approximately 22% of shares are held by institutional investors, including hedge funds and asset managers
• Insider ownership: Management and board members hold a meaningful but not controlling stake, aligning interests with shareholders
• Analyst coverage: The company is followed by 10 analysts, with ratings ranging from Strong Buy to Hold

Relatively modest institutional ownership leaves room for increased participation if execution continues. As the story develops and quarterly results validate the growth narrative, larger institutional buyers could provide additional demand.

NBIS Stock Earnings Breakdown

Let’s put the numbers in a clean, scannable format.

Metric	Q4 2025 Actual	Q4 2025 Estimate	2026 Guidance
Revenue	$227.7 million	$246.1 million	$3.0–3.4 billion
Adjusted EBITDA	$15.0 million	$22.6 million	~40% margin
Net Loss	($249.6 million)	N/A	EBIT negative (expected)
ARR (Exit Rate)	$1.2 billion	$1.1 billion (guide)	$7–9 billion
Core AI Cloud Revenue Growth	830% YoY	N/A	N/A
Operating Cash Flow	$834 million	N/A	N/A
Cash Position	$3.7 billion	N/A	N/A

The operating cash flow number is the standout. $834 million in a single quarter from customer prepayments tells you demand isn’t just strong—it’s front-loaded and sticky.

NBIS vs. The AI Infrastructure Giants

To understand Nebius, you have to understand where it fits in the broader AI ecosystem.

Company	Business Model	AI Revenue Scale	Customer Concentration	GPU Dependency
Nebius	AI-focused cloud	$1.2B ARR (Q4 exit)	High (Microsoft, Meta)	100% NVIDIA
CoreWeave	AI-focused cloud	~$2B run-rate (est.)	High (MSFT, others)	100% NVIDIA
Microsoft Azure	General cloud + AI	>$30B cloud revenue	Diversified	Mix (NVIDIA + in-house)
AWS	General cloud + AI	>$25B cloud revenue	Diversified	Mix
Google Cloud	General cloud + AI	>$10B cloud revenue	Diversified	Mix (TPUs + NVIDIA)

Key takeaway: Nebius is more concentrated—in customers, in GPUs, in focus—than the hyperscalers. That’s a double-edged sword. It means faster growth when demand is hot, but higher risk if any customer pulls back or if NVIDIA supply chains tighten. For investors weighing AI exposure, our broader Nvidia analysis explores the chipmaker’s role in this ecosystem.

Why NBIS Is Not NVIDIA — and Why That Matters

This distinction is critical for positioning within the AI ecosystem.

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Sells the picks and shovels. Every AI company needs GPUs. NVIDIA’s business model is diversified across cloud providers, enterprises, and governments. Margin profile: ~75%+ gross margins.
• Nebius (NBIS): Rents the shovels. They buy GPUs from NVIDIA, build infrastructure around them, and lease computing power. Margin profile: Target ~40% adjusted EBITDA margins.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Diversified cloud + AI. Azure includes AI services but also traditional cloud, Office, LinkedIn, etc. Margin profile: ~40–45% operating margins at scale. For context on the broader tech landscape, our Microsoft stock analysis provides additional detail.

The investing implication: Nebius is a pure-play AI infrastructure bet. NVIDIA is a semiconductor bet with AI exposure. Microsoft is a diversified tech giant. If you want maximum sensitivity to AI compute demand, NBIS offers higher leverage—both upside and downside.

NBIS Stock Chart Analysis

Technicals aren’t everything, but they matter for entry timing.

Key Levels (as of February 15, 2026):

• Current Price: $98.01
• 52-Week Range: $18.31 – $141.10
• Resistance: $100–$105 (recent high, psychological level)
• Major Resistance: $135–$141 (all-time high zone)
• Support: $88–$90 (post-earnings lows)
• 50-Day Moving Average: ~$92 (holding as support)
• 200-Day Moving Average: ~$92 (aligned with 50-day, rare bullish setup)
• RSI: Near 52, neutral territory with room for upside momentum

Volume: The February 13 rally saw volume spike nearly 50% above average , signaling institutional accumulation rather than retail noise.

Short Interest: Currently ~15% of float . At this level, short interest is elevated enough to create volatility but not yet extreme. If NBIS breaks above $105, expect short covering to accelerate the move.

NBIS Stock Price Prediction 2026–2027

Let’s move from technicals to valuation. The average analyst price target is $144.60, with a high of $211 and a low of $84 .

But targets are opinions. Let’s build our own scenarios.

Scenario	Price Target Range	Key Drivers	Probability
Bull Case	$150–$200	Flawless execution; 2026 guidance exceeded; Microsoft/Meta ramp ahead of schedule; short squeeze	30%
Base Case	$110–$150	Guidance achieved; minor delays absorbed; demand holds; stock re-rates toward $144 avg	50%
Bear Case	$60–$85	Major delays; cost overruns force dilutive raise; AI demand softens; multiple compression across sector	20%

My base case: $110–$150 by year-end 2026. Building data centers at this scale inevitably hits snags. But with demand pre-sold and cash flow positive, Nebius has margin of safety.

NBIS Valuation Breakdown

Let’s do some math that matters.

• Market Cap (intraday): $24.8 billion
• At the current valuation, the market is pricing NBIS as a mid-cap hypergrowth infrastructure play — not yet hyperscaler territory, but rapidly scaling toward it.
• Enterprise Value (approx.): ~$21 billion (subtract $3.7B cash)
• 2026 Revenue Guidance: $3.0–3.4 billion
• Forward EV/Revenue: ~6.2–7.0x

Compare to:

• CoreWeave (private): Recent transactions imply ~8–10x forward revenue
• Cloud infrastructure peers: Typically trade 4–8x forward revenue at this growth stage

NBIS currently trades near the middle of that range, suggesting the market is neither pricing in perfection nor pricing in failure. There’s room for multiple expansion if execution beats expectations—or contraction if it falters.

Valuation Sensitivity:

Revenue Scenario	Multiple	Implied EV	Implied Upside/Downside
$3.2B	6x	$19.2B	~-8%
$3.2B	8x	$25.6B	~+23%
$3.2B	10x	$32B	~+53%

Now let’s quantify the growth trajectory:

• ARR exit Q4 2025: $1.2 billion
• ARR guidance end of 2026: $7–9 billion
• Implied ARR growth in 12 months: 483–650%

That’s the kind of math that separates hypergrowth from normal growth. To justify that multiple, Nebius needs to execute flawlessly.

True multiple expansion will likely depend on when Nebius transitions to sustained net profitability, not just EBITDA margins.

Verdict: Valuation is in the fair range—not cheap, not bubbly—if they hit guidance.

If you’re building a diversified long-term portfolio, our guide on stock market analysis for long-term investors explains how to evaluate growth names within broader allocation strategies.

Share Count and Dilution History

One question long-term investors should ask: has Nebius diluted shareholders before?

Since its Nasdaq listing and restructuring from Yandex, Nebius has maintained relatively stable share count. The company has an at-the-market (ATM) equity program authorized but has not used it to date . Management has stated they prefer debt financing over equity dilution to fund the 2026 CapEx plan .

That said, the risk of future dilution exists if debt markets tighten or if costs overrun. Any sudden spike in share count quarter-over-quarter would be an early warning signal.

CapEx Funding: How the 60% Coverage Works

Management has been explicit about the funding structure:

• Cash on hand: The $3.7 billion balance sheet position provides immediate liquidity
• Operating cash flow: The $834 million Q4 number reflects upfront customer prepayments, which will continue through 2026
• Debt facilities: The company is actively exploring corporate debt and asset-backed financing, with no corporate-level debt currently on the balance sheet

Even if debt funds the remaining 40%, leverage ratios would remain moderate relative to projected 2027 EBITDA. This layered approach means Nebius isn’t relying on a single funding source. The “60% covered” figure is backed by specific, disclosed mechanisms.

The Competitive Edge: What Others Miss

Power grid access as the real moat. Building data centers is hard. Securing reliable, cost-effective power is harder. Nebius’s early contracting of over 2GW of power—with a target of 3GW by year-end—creates a structural advantage that competitors cannot easily replicate.

Prepayment model as a demand signal. The $834 million in quarterly operating cash flow isn’t just a liquidity metric. It’s proof that customers are willing to commit capital months in advance to secure capacity. That’s rare in infrastructure investing and signals pricing power.

Asset-backed financing optionality. With no corporate debt and multi-year customer contracts, Nebius can potentially access favorable asset-backed financing, reducing reliance on equity markets. This structural flexibility is underappreciated.

Bullish Case vs Bearish Case

Here’s the balanced view every investor needs.

Bull Case	Bear Case
Demand exceeds supply: Sold out through Q1 2026; pricing firm	Execution delays: New data centers slip, pushing revenue to 2027
Financing flexibility: 60% of $16–20B CapEx already covered via cash, prepayments, and planned debt	Dilutive raise: If costs overrun, equity dilution hits shareholders
Microsoft/Meta ramp: Both contracts on track; full revenue by 2027	Customer concentration: Hyperscalers likely represent 30–50% of revenue based on contract disclosures and ARR pacing
Software moat: Tavily acquisition adds 700k developers; Token Factory expands margin	GPU pricing pressure: If AI demand cools, rental rates compress
Institutional accumulation: Hedge funds adding; short squeeze potential	If forward multiples compress across AI infrastructure due to macro tightening, NBIS could fall even if execution remains intact

Customer Concentration: The Precision Question

While exact percentages are not disclosed, hyperscalers likely represent 30–50% of revenue based on contract disclosures and ARR pacing, with Microsoft and Meta as the largest partners. Management has stated that the 2026 ARR target is not dependent on new mega-deals, implying existing contracts provide a foundation. Concentration is expected to decline as enterprise and startup mix grows.

NBIS vs Hyperscaler Risk Analysis

The biggest risk nobody wants to talk about: what happens if Microsoft slows spend?

Microsoft is both a customer and a competitor (via Azure). If Microsoft decides to bring more AI capacity in-house, Nebius loses a massive revenue stream.

Mitigating factors:

• Contracts are multi-year and locked in
• Microsoft is capacity-constrained internally; they need external partners
• Nebius is expanding its enterprise and startup customer base to diversify

But this remains a risk. Customer concentration is real.

Investors comparing hyperscaler exposure may also want to review our recent analysis of VRT stock 2026 price target and HOOD stock earnings 2026 for additional infrastructure and fintech contrasts.

What Could Change My Mind? (Bearish Triggers)

I’m constructive on NBIS here, but I’m not married to the position. Here’s what would turn me bearish:

Trigger	Why It Matters	Status
ARR guidance cut	If $7–9B target is lowered, growth narrative breaks	Holding
CapEx funding shortfall	If debt markets tighten and equity dilution accelerates	Watching
Microsoft contract revision	Any sign of reduced commitment from largest customer	None yet
Margin compression below 35%	If pricing softens or costs spike, unit economics suffer	Tracking
Grid connection delays	If 800MW–1GW target slips, revenue pushed to 2027	Monitor Q2 updates

If any of these triggers materialize, the risk/reward balance shifts. For now, the data supports the bull case.

Risks Investors Must Watch

Let’s be brutally honest about what could go wrong.

1. The $20 Billion CapEx Wall
Nebius plans to spend $16–20 billion in 2026 on data centers and GPUs . While 60% is covered by cash, prepayments, and planned debt, the remaining 40% requires external capital. If debt markets tighten, equity dilution becomes a real possibility.

2. Execution Complexity
Nine new data centers across multiple countries. Power grid bottlenecks. Equipment shortages. Any delay pushes revenue recognition into 2027, creating a “show me” moment for impatient investors.

3. Customer Concentration
Hyperscalers likely represent 30–50% of revenue. If Microsoft or Meta cuts back or renegotiates, revenue takes a direct hit. Diversification is happening, but slowly.

4. GPU Supply and Pricing
Nebius is 100% dependent on NVIDIA. If NVIDIA prioritizes its own customers or if GPU prices drop, margins compress. So far, pricing remains firm, but this is a watchpoint.

5. Regulatory & Energy Risk
AI data centers face increasing regulatory scrutiny and energy pricing volatility in both Europe and the U.S. Power costs and carbon regulations could impact long-term margin assumptions.

6. Short-Term Profitability Pressure
Wall Street hates negative revisions. If Nebius misses again—even for timing reasons—the stock could get punished while the long-term thesis plays out.

Who Should (and Should Not) Buy NBIS?

NBIS is for investors who:

• Have a 3+ year time horizon
• Can tolerate 30–50% drawdowns
• Believe AI infrastructure demand remains robust
• Want AI exposure beyond NVIDIA

NBIS is NOT for investors who:

• Need steady income or dividends
• Panic during earnings volatility
• Prefer established, profitable companies
• Have a low risk tolerance

New investors may benefit from reviewing our guides on how to choose your first stocks and the difference between trading and investing before taking on high-volatility AI exposure.

Frequently Asked Questions

Final Thoughts

The NBIS stock analysis 2026 story isn’t complicated once you look past the headline noise.

Yes, Nebius missed Q4 revenue by a few million. Yes, they’re committing significant capital to new data centers. Yes, execution risk is real.

But here’s what matters: customers are paying upfront for capacity that doesn’t even exist yet. Annual recurring revenue is on a trajectory to grow at triple-digit rates. Margins are expanding. And the company has a clear line of sight to massive scale.

At current levels, risk-reward skews favorable for long-term investors — but only if execution stays on track. This remains a high-beta AI infrastructure play, not a defensive allocation. If execution holds and funding remains disciplined, upside remains meaningful. If growth stumbles, downside could be swift.

If you believe AI is more than a passing trend—if you think we’re still in the early days of the infrastructure build-out—then Nebius deserves a spot on your watchlist. Long-term investors may consider building exposure gradually, with discipline around entry levels. Hypergrowth carries execution volatility, but the setup remains compelling for those with patience.

For broader market context, our analysis on why are stocks down today and the S&P 500 explained guide provide useful reference points. And for investors weighing AI infrastructure exposure, our coverage of tech stocks 2026 and the best AI cloud stocks 2026 offers additional perspective.

New investors may benefit from reviewing our guides on how to choose your first stocks and the difference between trading and investing before taking on high-volatility AI exposure.

Last updated: February 15, 2026
Data sources: Nebius Q4 2025 earnings release, investor presentation, and SEC filings
This analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.